For trends and for eternity
Two months ago at WWDC 2017, Apple introduced the world its own framework for creating augmented reality applications called ARKit. Someone…
Two months ago at WWDC 2017, Apple introduced the world its own framework for creating augmented reality applications called ARKit. Someone was shocked by this news, while others waited for it since Apple bought the pioneer company in the field of the augmented reality of Metaio in May 2015 (remember that Metaio was founded in 2003 as offshoot of a project at Volkswagen). One way or another, it is difficult to overestimate the significance of this event.
Internet (mainly Youtube and Twitter) immediately exploded from the number of different prototypes that people from all over the world shared — games, entertainment, business solutions, application use, education. But what of what has poured into the network in the first months after the announcement, it’s fashionable, but what’s forever? We decided to reflect on the topic of what is and is popular now, and what awaits us in the future, when iOS 11 and ARKit will be released in September and the first AR applications will appear in the AppStore. That’s our prediction, pure subjective opinion based on our experience.
Entertainment
Popularity now — 1st place
Popularity after release — 2nd place
Entertainment occupies the first place in the number of advertised prototypes at the moment. In the virtual reality, such applications are called VR-experience. In fact, they are a panoramic video with a minimal set of interactive interactions or completely non-existent. These include portals, simple models on the stage (most often animated), drawing in the air — in a word everything that you mostly look at rather than interact. All their charm lies in the fact that they are relatively cheap and easy to develop — that’s why there are so many of them. Any student can import a 3D model into the ARKit framework with a little effort and often it will even look cool. But. As the practice of virtual reality shows, such content does not have a great future in the long term. After the appearance of serious titles (games including) users quickly overstated the bar of requirements and only “watching” it is already not so attractive.
2. Applied use
Popularity now —2nd place
Popularity after release — 3d place
That applications look promising, as it seems that they can change our life for the better, simplify it. For example, the ARKit line, the prototype video of which ranks first in the views on Youtube. Or the navigation AR system, which is already used in the latest version of Apple Maps. But this category has a big problem — it’s its quick exhaustibility, a small reserve of opportunities. Ideas on the surface are quickly implemented at the start of the technology, which is the reason for the hype of this category, but there is not much left of them. If games and entertainment are limited only by our imagination, then applications are restricted to our needs, most of which are already successfully covered with special tools. The application, which greatly facilitates life, but only one person — will not become very popular.
3. Games
Popularity now — 3d place
Popularity after release — 1st place
So far their list is minimal and consists of the simplest representatives of their genre — such as PacMan, Tetris, Minecraft. Serious projects require a lot of time and resources for development. Of course, a simple prototype with an unusual idea can be done alone overnight on the one knee and put his video on YouTube (which we are observing right now). But full-fledged games, as they say in our country, do not grow like mushrooms after the rain — this is a much more complicated process that requires the development of design, visual style, code architecture and coordinated work of specialists of different profiles.
And not anyone can’t afford that. Not surprisingly, after only two months after the announcement of ARKit, we still have not seen a single full game. It would be strange if it were otherwise. But we are sure that the time will come, and they will start to appear like mushrooms after the rain (after all, their long development cycles may coincide). Why? Because the games have proven themselves among the audience of Apple device owners and this is obviously what they will expect from ARKit in the first place. Plus, the important role played by the commercial component — the game is the most earning category of the presented, and money is the engine of progress.
4. Business solutions
Popularity now — 4th place
Popularity after release — 5th place
Business can move many industries, but not in this case we think. ARKit offers its users unprecedented visibility, and many use it as a USP — selection, and inspection of food in restaurants, furniture in Ikea, houses, and apartments in the real estate segment, cars in car dealerships, clothes in boutiques. The main thing — all this without leaving home. But, at that moment, this is a limit of the business use of ARKit, and it is still unclear how it can be expanded (and should it be expanded?). B2B is an affluent market, and it is evident that many will try to jump on this wagon of sponsorship money.
5. Education
Popularity now — 5th place
Popularity after release — 4th place
We have always considered and believe the educational aspect in games and technologies to be a very important element. At the moment, ARKit can not boast of an abundance of educational applications. The vast majority of them are more likely to fall into the category of applied ones — such as dance training, visualization of the planets of the solar system, the volumetric structure of molecules and the nutritional value of various products. But it normal. Education is not the first thing that developers of new technologies are interested in, but all new platforms inevitably come to this in time. Usually, first there are applications for the youngest at the level of interactive cartoons, and then those that can really help in the school and university curriculum (AR cheat sheets — why not?).
And what do you think, which ARKit applications will be popular in the future?
P.S .: We conducted a survey on our Twitter, in which we asked our readers to share their opinion on the “what category of ARKit applications will become the most popular” and that’s what they answered: